Di Battista, polls: his party is worth between 3 and 5%, panic on the left | Libero Quotidiano.it

There are many variables: from the symbol to the leader, from memberships to the themes to champion, from the financiers (creating a party from scratch costs) to the blessing or not of Beppe Grillo. But the opinion of several pollsters and analysts converges: a political movement led by Alessandro Di Battista, which would take up the original flag of the Movement (as openly encouraged by the Genoese comedian, founder of the Movement, in the post published yesterday) could be worth at least between 3 and 5 percent.

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Not little for a force that would present itself for the first time. Enough, above all, to worry the broad field, from which most of those percentage points would be taken. Antonio Noto, director of Noto polls, starts from the ongoing judicial procedure between Grillo and Giuseppe Conte over the ownership of the M5S symbol, an appeal made by the founder of the Movement to prevent Conte from using the brand.

“If the judges were to take away Conte’s use of the M5S symbol, it would be much easier for Grillo to gather, under a brand that already exists, voters dissatisfied with Conte.” Beyond this, a new subject that refers back to the beginnings of the Movement can address, Noto tells Libero, three types of electorate. “The first type concerns voters who over the years have abandoned the M5S because they did not share Conte’s line, decidedly shifted to the left. It is an electorate that in recent years has taken refuge in abstention and now winks at Vannacci.” Then there is another type of electorate: “Those who have a love-hate relationship with “The new subject could address voters dissatisfied with Conte who have taken refuge in abstention and who now wink at Vannacci. It could exceed the 3% threshold” the M5S, leaders, parliamentarians who are in the M5S, but who criticize Conte. I think of Chiara Appendino or Virginia Raggi who are in the M5S, but are critical of Conte because they would like a Movement less tied to the PD and not allied with Renzi.” Finally, a third type, “a freer electorate, the one embodied by Di Battista, who has detached himself from the M5S, but continues to cultivate those ideals.”

THE ELECTORAL LAW
There is another factor to consider: “The new electoral law under discussion in Parliament favors the birth of these aggregations. It provides, in fact, for a 3 percent threshold. But a movement that has Grillo’s blessing would not have difficulty reaching that threshold.” In conclusion, for Noto, a force led by Di Battista, which tried to propose itself as a return to the origins of the Movement, could easily stand “between 3 and 5 percent,” of which “70 percent would be taken from the broad field and the rest from voters who would not have voted.” “Di Battista is not Vannacci. There is no space on the left. It is true, there is a progressive world that today struggles to find a party reference. This new party can reach 2/3%” Naturalmente il grosso di quel 70 per cento verrebbe dal M5S, perché «ruberebbe elettori che, in assenza di un’alternativa, avrebbero votato il M5S». Ma sarebbe un danno a tutta la coalizione perché toglierebbe «due o tre punti percentuali».

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Giovanni Diamanti, of Youtrend, is less optimistic: “Di Battista is not Vannacci. There is no space on the left, I do not see such a strong positioning. It is true, there is a progressive world that today struggles to find a party reference. But Grillo and Di Battista do not have a strong rooting in the progressive world, the anti-political and post-ideological space is already covered.” Diamanti also agrees, however, that a new subject led by Di Battista could “gain 2 or 3 percent.” He does not see, however, growth comparable to the Vannacci phenomenon: “Futuro Nazionale has a new leadership that has been able to speak to a world that is that of the right dissatisfied with Meloni.” Different is the case of Di Battista. “Of course, he can nibble a few points and “If he remains autonomous, if he does not chase the broad field, the new party could reach between 3 and 5 percent. Di Battista needs logistics: he has never run alone” put the broad field in difficulty, but no more than a few points.”

LOGISTICS AND TERRITORY
Roberto Baldassarri, director of the demoscopic institute Lab21, bets on a range between 3 and 5 percent, however. On one condition: “If he remains autonomous, if he does not chase the broad field.” Certainly, Grillo’s blessing counts. “Many former M5S voters are migrating towards Vannacci. So, if there were a political offer closer to the origins of the Movement, they could be attracted.” However, there is an important variable. Baldassarri: “To create a party from scratch you need logistics. Di Battista has never run alone, unlike Vannacci who had already created his own movement. He must organize himself on the territory so that that potential 3-5 percent translates into real votes.” Much will depend, therefore, on the realities that will give him a hand. From whom would a force of this type take votes? “Part certainly from the M5S, another from non-voting.” But, certainly, “the broad field would risk losing at least three points.”

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