Pagnoncelli Survey, “49% of the PD”: the final humiliation for Elly Schlein | Libero Quotidiano.it

The rain continues to fall on the (already thoroughly soaked) head of Elly Schlein. While waiting for a program that should precede the choice of the leader, whether through primaries or not, and the definition of the coalition’s final structure, a first piece of data according to a Ipsos-Doxa poll published in Corriere della Sera is already emerging, somewhat surprisingly: voting intentions for the primaries would actually favor Giuseppe Conte in first place, estimated at 38%, with Schlein far behind at 22%, followed by a third candidate at 20%.

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The prevalence of Conte, explains Nando Pagnoncelli, “is motivated by the fact that he obtains not only the support of the vast majority of Five Star Movement voters (78%), but also a majority vote on the left (54%, presumably motivated by pacifist orientations), and would also get the vote of about one fifth of PD voters and centrist forces. Conversely – Pagnoncelli observes – Elly Schlein struggles more to unite her own: only half (49%) of PD voters would vote for their secretary, while 20% would lean towards Conte, 15% towards a third candidate, 16% uncertain or for a blank or null ballot; furthermore, the PD secretary would receive little support from voters of other parties.”

The result would not change, according to the same survey, even in the runoff where Conte would still be the winner, obtaining 43% of voters (about 59% of valid votes, excluding uncertain and blank or null ballots), while the Democratic secretary would get 30% (41% of valid votes). But in the entire electorate – the poll adds – the prevailing belief is that between the two contenders, in the end, it will be a third (or a third woman) to lead the progressive coalition (22% think so, while 18% would bet on Conte and 13% on Schlein, and 47% do not know). Only 19% think the leader should be, as in the center-right, the one who leads the party that gets the most votes; 30% opt for primaries as the best tool for the choice, but (and perhaps this is no surprise) 33% would like a unifier like Prodi: chosen by the coalition forces and subsequently crowned by the primaries.

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Numbers in hand, at the top in approval is the mayor of Genoa, Silvia Salis (who has been much talked about as an outsider in the upcoming primaries) who obtains an approval rating of 56%, above Conte (55) and Schlein (51). The other three figures discussed are distant: Onorato, Ruffini, and Spadafora are less known (still by over 50% of progressive area voters) and receive lower approval ratings that tend to grow in the area of third forces and undecided voters.

“It is likely that, beyond limited recognition, the lack of convergence on a single figure who can represent the so-called moderate-reformist area – comments Pagnoncelli – penalizes these three representatives.”

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