The latest Youtrend survey for Sky Tg24 photographs a very fluid situation, with the two coalitions that could take off or collapse thanks to a handful of decimals. Variable geometries decisive for the 2027 political elections.
Fratelli d’Italia remains the leading party but drops to 26.4% (-0.5% compared to July 2); the Partito Democratico is substantially stable at 21.9% (-0.1%) and reduces the gap to 4.5 points. The Movimento 5 Stelle drops to 11.5% (-0.5%). The most significant data from the survey, once again, is the growth of Futuro Nazionale, which rises to 7.6% (+1.2%) and is only three tenths away from Forza Italia (7.9%, +0.3%), consolidating itself as the fifth national force, close behind the fourth. The Lega, on the other hand, drops to 4.9% (-0.5%), now almost three points behind Vannacci’s party, while Noi Moderati is stable at 0.8%. The governing majority (FdI, FI, Lega, NM) is worth 40.0% (-0.7%); including General Roberto Vannacci‘s Futuro Nazionale, the entire center-right area reaches 47.6%.
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On the left, Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra rises to 6.8% (+0.2%); the broad field (Pd, M5s, Avs) stands at a total of 40.2%, in substantial parity with the governing bloc. In the centrist area, Azione rises to 3.7% (+0.3%), Italia Viva drops to 2.1% (-0.4%) and +Europa rises to 1.9% (+0.6%). The area of undecided and abstaining voters grows significantly to 38.0% (+4.5%): the widespread decline of the major parties primarily impacts non-voting.
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Finally, regarding the judgment on the government, this remains stable among positives (35%), while negatives rise to 58% (+3%) at the expense of the undecided (7%, -3%): the negative balance widens to 23 points. The polarization – Youtrend observes – is total: 99% of positive judgments among FdI voters and 92% of negatives in the broad field. In the center-right, the multi-speed consensus already observed at the beginning of the month is confirmed: the almost unanimous appreciation of FdI voters is accompanied by the more lukewarm one of FI, Lega, and Noi Moderati voters (65% positive, with 11% undecided) and the even colder, but recovering, one of Futuro Nazionale voters (61% positive, 39% negative, against 50%-50% on July 2.
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