How much would Luca Zaia influence the role of deputy secretary of the League? «Even two percentage points», Antonio Noto, founder and director of Noto Sondaggi, tells Libero, but he is keen to emphasize one aspect, «it is fundamental»: «This growth, from now until the next political elections, could happen with Zaia as co-secretary, not simply as a deputy inserted into the organizational chart. It depends on whether he wants to and can put his face on certain issues». Noto also analyzes the potential pitfalls for the League: «It is true that Zaia in Veneto has a very large personal consensus, he confirmed it in the last regional elections», in which the former governor set a record for preferences, 203 thousand, «but today the party also has an electoral base in the center-South, and there Zaia could be seen by some as the man of the autonomy referendum. However, if the operation succeeds, it brings added value, there is no doubt».
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Noto imagines a further scenario: «A control room for the territories, therefore not only limited to Zaia but open to other governors or mayors, could be even more incisive». But from whom would “the doge” take votes? The opinions of Livio Gigliuto and Lorenzo Pregliasco diverge. For the president of the Piepoli Institute, «especially from Fratelli d’Italia, which in the Northeast in recent years has intercepted the votes of many League voters». According to the director of Youtrend, however, the former governor of Veneto «in addition to intercepting a share of abstainers» – Gigliuto also thinks this, and we will return to it immediately – «can draw from Forza Italia, from the moderate world, from entrepreneurs and from the productive sector».
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TV AND DEBATES
Gigliuto is in turn preparing an estimate of how much the League with Zaia as deputy can be worth in percentage terms, and meanwhile explains: «When I tested him, he had 40% personal trust, a very high figure. Furthermore, he has a transversal component, even a part of the center-left electorate appreciates him, so theoretically he could activate electoral flows from there too, but be careful…». The president of the Piepoli Institute goes into detail about the operation: «If it will be a kind of Salvini-Zaia ticket, capable of dividing spaces in talk shows and debates depending on the issues, then the novelty will really catch on with people, it would be perceived as a real change and not a superficial, “plastic” one. Conversely, it can move little in public opinion. In any case, repositioning a party is an operation that requires time, it’s not something that happens from one week to the next».
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Pregliasco agrees on Zaia’s potential role: «He can be new fuel for the League, give a different perspective, but be careful that deputy secretary does not mean secretary, it doesn’t change that much at the level of public opinion, it is crucial to understand what room for maneuver he will have. He can certainly bring the image of a League that knows how to administer territories and can influence some slogans like “taxes” and “bureaucracy”, historical themes in Veneto». Pregliasco broadens the reasoning: «Zaia’s figure could also become interesting if he brings a different approach to the party’s relationship with Trump, more pragmatic and less ideological».
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THE GENERAL
Vannacci chapter. «In four months», explains Pregliasco, «he has halved the gap with the League, from 5 points to 2 and a half. Of course, we cannot know if this trend will continue or for how long, but so far the League and Futuro Nazionale are communicating vessels, if one grows the other declines, the flows say this». Gigliuto starts from the 2024 European elections: «By bringing in Vannacci, Salvini won the bet, he was courageous because the outcome was by no means a given. When Vannacci founded his party, he immediately took his voters with him, about 2.5% of the total 9% taken by the League two years ago. Now Vannacci continues to grow, in the last week he has risen by one point and the League has dropped by half. However, the League could recover, many things can happen between now and the general elections. Salvini, and this was not easy either, managed to transform a territorial party into a national one, but now with Vannacci it has become a national party versus national party challenge, and the two electorates are very similar». Noto agrees on the Vannacci-European operation: «The League did not lose voters for that candidacy. If we consider the previous European elections, it was at 34%, so the decline had been dragging on for some time. Now let’s see this Zaia operation».
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