When Giorgia Meloni took office on October 22, 2022, Italy was paying a yield close to 4.5% on the ten-year BTP. It is the main rate to evaluate the cost of debt. Today, at the beginning of September 2026, that rate fluctuates around 4.2%. The difference may be perceived as minimal. Those who want to trivialize have an easy time doing so. The point, however, is not the decimal itself. But how the world has moved in the meantime. Let’s leave aside the not negligible detail of two wars (Ukraine and Iran). At the time the government took office, there was only one.
However, the European Central Bank has changed the face of its monetary policy. The deposit rate for banks, at the time the government took office, was 0.75%. A few days later, on October 27, Frankfurt raised it to 1.50. Then the rise continued up to 4%, before a decline that today sees that rate at 2.25. For simplicity, we compare only the two extremes: 0.75 and 2.25. That rate, which is a “guide,” has nevertheless more than tripled. And despite this, the Italian ten-year bond has not risen but actually fallen. So Italy has not simply held firm. But has achieved a masterpiece.
Giorgia Meloni, 2 days from the historic record another blow for Schlein and Conte: here is the report
Perhaps Giorgia Meloni could not have hoped for a better way to approach the big day. 48 hours from the Bari celebration pe…
The comparison with what has meanwhile changed in what the most important European partners pay makes us understand even better. The German ten-year Bund, in the same period, went from just above 1.8% to 3.4%. The yield on the French OAT rose from about 2.8% to 4.2%. Currently, Paris even pays more than Rome. The BTP-Bund spread has returned to around 80 basis points, far from the 250 reached in September 2022, when Draghi was in government. Gone are the days of Merkel and Sarkozy’s smiles behind Berlusconi.
There is also another decisive figure for those who issue debt every month. And that newspapers overlook. At the end of September 2022, the Bank of Italy held about 710 billion in BTPs. Central banks were creating money out of nothing and buying government bonds. Monetary policy has instead become restrictive since 2022. It has changed its face, as we said at the beginning. In practice, this means that as bonds matured, they were not replaced. By June 2026, the portfolio of Via Nazionale had indeed fallen to around 540 billion. About 170 billion removed from circulation. And despite this, the Treasury did not have to raise the yield to replace them.
Who took the place of the Bank of Italy? Partly households, whose share of public debt rose from 9% to about 14-15. It is a qualitative as well as quantitative change. The saver is less fickle than the investor. They have no stop loss to respect or margin requirements to meet. They tend to hold the bond until maturity. A stability that on the cost of debt is worth more than a statement or a maneuver.
Read more Cernobbio, Mario Monti: «My only request». Trap for Vannacci? | Libero Quotidiano.it
The successes of the Meloni Government in four years: international credibility, spread at minimum and record stock market
After four years of the Meloni government, it is undeniable that Italy has strengthened its own cre…
Partly, and to an even greater extent, foreign investors have arrived. Their holdings have grown by several hundred billion compared to 2022. And here caution is needed. On one hand, it is a vote of confidence: those who buy BTPs from abroad do so because they consider the premium sufficient and the political risk acceptable.
On the other hand, it can be a factor of prospective instability. Without monetary sovereignty and without a national central bank that can act as a lender of last resort, a foreign share of about one third of the debt makes refinancing more exposed to external shocks. When the wind changes, the foreign investor sells more easily and more quickly.
The raw data of the stock remains. Public administration debt has gone from about 2,760 billion at the end of 2022 to just over 3,200 in mid-2026. The increase must be read keeping in mind that about 100-150 billion of additional debt derives from the lost revenue due to the superbonus. Money with which the government could have lowered taxes but could not. And this is a relevant issue now that we are approaching the elections.
If a center-right government asks for trust on tax cuts, it must show in the budget law – already from that for 2027 – that it intends to do so immediately and prospectively. Otherwise, what would the voter think faced with a future promise that has not started to be implemented now? This issue is more important than the electoral law or a possible alliance with Vannacci.
