Giovanni Orsina, historian and political scientist at Luiss in Rome, author of important books on the center-right and the Italian political system, the latest of which, Controrivoluzione, is dedicated to the reasons for populism. The Meloni government is the longest-lasting in the Italian republic. Would you have believed it four years ago?
“Italian politics is what it is, so I can’t say I would have been sure of it four years ago. But I’m not too surprised. The right-wing coalition has a tradition of stability that is also linked to the tendency of its voters to converge – whereas those on the left tend to diverge. By electoral strength, Meloni was the undisputed leader of the alliance, and Lega and Forza Italia couldn’t pull the rope too much, because they would have been the first to pay the price of a crisis. The only real risk was that in the polls Brothers of Italy would start to decline and one of the other coalition parties would grow. But the leaderships of Salvini and Berlusconi first and Tajani later were too weak for this to happen.”
In these years some things have gone better than many observers could have predicted. Which ones do you put at the top of the list?
“Foreign policy, without a doubt. Meloni moved well on the Atlantic scene until the break with Trump, and even that, in my opinion, would have been difficult to manage better. She gained credibility in Europe and participated in defining the Union’s policies, overcoming the prejudices of many of her partners to the point of sending Raffaele Fitto to the vice-presidency of the Commission. In particular, she contributed to changing European migration policies, which are obviously crucial for her. And, although not extraordinary, the Mattei plan towards Africa is working, which is far from irrelevant for energy supply and, once again, for managing migration flows.”
How much has Meloni been helped by the weakness of the left-wing leaders?
“Very much. Politics nowadays is tied to the polls. If the opposition had regained electoral ground during the legislature, pressure on the government coalition would have increased and Meloni’s life would have been much more difficult. Instead, practically nothing moved until Vannacci. Meloni today is in trouble on the right, not on the left. Quite a paradox.”
Where, instead, has the government not lived up to expectations?
“Competitiveness, productivity, growth, structural reforms. The government has done very little to solve the country’s now thirty-year-old economic problems. It is also true that, if they are thirty years old, it is because no one – Berlusconi, Prodi, Monti, Draghi, Renzi, Conte – has managed to solve them. But from such a long-lasting government, more was to be expected. And the only non-economic structural reform, that of the judiciary, ended as it did. Considering how Italy works, however, we could also reverse the reasoning.”
In what sense?
“The point is not that Meloni has not made reforms despite lasting so long, but that she lasted so long precisely because she did not make reforms. The country does not like to be disturbed and tends to expel from power those who stir too much. On the only reform she attempted, in fact, Meloni was defeated in the referendum.”
Is Meloni the Italian version of the phenomenon we are seeing in the US with Donald Trump, in France with Marine Le Pen, and in Germany with AfD? Or is she a phenomenon unto herself?
“She belongs to the same political family, that of the national-conservative reaction to globalist abstractions, but she also has peculiar characteristics. Unlike AfD or RN, in fact, Meloni has a government background. Her political formation took place in a National Alliance that was abandoning all neo- and post-fascist residues, to become essentially a pragmatic and moderate right-wing party. Then, of course, after 2013 Brothers of Italy participated in the populist carnival. But the underlying framework remained the pragmatic one of the origins and it quickly re-emerged when the government came back into view.”
Is pragmatism not a contradiction of nationalism?
“No, because we have to take into account what the nation is. Being nationalist in Washington is very different from being so in Rome. There you can afford to organize a coup in Venezuela and wage war on Iran. If you govern Italy, it is in your national interest to collaborate with allied countries and participate constructively in the life of the European Union. Pragmatism, in short, is imposed on you in many ways precisely by nationalism.”
Since the second republic no government has ever been confirmed in the subsequent elections. Can Meloni be an exception in this respect as well?
“Considering the left’s propensity for political suicide, if Vannacci had not emerged, Meloni would have easily won again. Vannacci complicated her life quite a bit. That said, it is not impossible that she will be confirmed. We have to see if Futuro Nazionale will continue to swell in the polls, but we also have to see if the so-called broad field is able to get somewhere. In short, political uncertainties are still many, and institutional ones too: we don’t know when we will vote or with what system. The global situation, then, represents an additional unknown. It is very difficult and very dangerous and Italians are beginning to realize it very slowly – too slowly.”
How can it affect the vote?
“The ability of leaders to reassure, show responsibility, concreteness, and the ability to manage challenges will count a lot. On this ground Meloni is experienced, her competitors much less. This could lead to electoral results very different from those hypothesized by the polls. For the same reason, moreover, Giuseppe Conte is Meloni’s most dangerous opponent: he is also experienced.”
The premier relies on an electoral law that recovers the philosophy of the premiership and forces the left to choose a prime minister candidate. Could this be the right path?
“It is the right path to put the left in difficulty. After that, it certainly does not guarantee Meloni victory: if the left manages to find an arrangement it can very well win. Meloni wants to avoid defeat, but even more the tie, which could force her to govern together with the PD. Beyond tactics, however, there is a crucial fact: government stability is not everything, but it is a lot, in the current international situation. With the current law we risk losing it, and that would be a catastrophe. So a law that gives the government a solid electoral legitimacy is welcome.”
In the center-right there is discussion about the runoff, also as an anti-Vannacci function. Many argue that it would be suicide. But is there really a risk that right-wing voters will boycott the second round?
“In my opinion, no. Not in the political elections, at least: in an important vote, in which it is decided who leads the government, right-wing voters would mobilize. The right has always opposed the runoff for a simple reason: it was united, the left was divided, and the runoff would have wiped out this advantage. With Vannacci the right has also divided and this has rebalanced the playing field. There is always one fact, however: the right in this country has always been a few points below fifty percent. If in the runoff everyone else mobilizes against it, it loses. And it is easy that everyone else will mobilize against it after five years in government.”
In the next legislature the successor to Sergio Mattarella will be chosen. Ignazio La Russa says Meloni would be a splendid president of the republic…
“Not impossible, but certainly very unlikely. Meloni would have to win the elections with a wide and solid majority. And then keep it even when voting for the Quirinale, one of the most politically complex moments of republican life. By tradition, top leaders do not go up there. If in 2029 it were her after having been, at that point, seven years at Palazzo Chigi, and as the undisputed leader of the first party, the balance of the republic would radically change. We would enter a phase of de facto presidentialism. But the country is too fragile to accept such a disruptive solution. That is why I believe it is very unlikely.”
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