If **preferences** were introduced in the **new electoral law** in the Senate, as **Giorgia Meloni** seems determined to do, it would be a problem especially for the left. It’s no coincidence that for several days, at the top levels of the broad field parties, a red light has been flashing. Various electoral experts have been contacted, asking for simulations. The outcome, however, is unequivocal. It would be a problem. A big problem. And from various points of view.
**Salvatore Vassallo**, political scientist and director of the Cattaneo Institute, one of the most authoritative institutions for vote analysis, explains to Libero: «If preferences were introduced, three changes would occur: in the competition between leaders, between parties of the same coalition, and between candidates of the same party». A triple rivalry would be triggered: between leaders, but also between parties, as shifts almost always happen between parties of the same alignment, and between candidates, as preferences ignite competition among those on the same list.
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DIFFICULTIES
The points of view from which to analyze this change and its possible effects, says Vassallo, are two. A top-down perspective (from the point of view of party leaders), and a bottom-up perspective (from the point of view of listed candidates). «If you look from above, the **Five Star Movement** and the **Democratic Party** are the parties most in difficulty. **Fratelli d’Italia**, in fact, has a cohesive leadership group, identified with Giorgia Meloni, but at the same time rooted: Meloni’s colonels have their own territorial base». For this reason, he explains, they do not fear preferences. The case of the Democratic Party is very different: «**Elly Schlein** wants to change the Democratic Party’s ruling class, while those who can gain preferences are local administrators, municipal or regional councilors who are politically distant from her». The most rooted in the territory, as seen in the last European elections, are the exponents of the minority, the reformists, as well as the “cacicchi” (local bosses), those Schlein had promised to eradicate.
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But **Giuseppe Conte** also has the problem, if not more so. «With preferences», Vassallo continues, «Conte risks finding himself with uncontrollable figures, as happened with the ‘parlamentarie’ (internal party primaries)». Especially in the South, people far from the Movement could enter Parliament but, thanks to their ability to mobilize personal votes, they exploit the opportunity. Simply put, the choice of candidates would no longer be in the hands of leaders or their representatives, but would be entrusted to people who could assert themselves autonomously. On the other hand, leaders would need candidates capable of gaining preferences, so they could hardly refuse candidates of this type.
Then there’s the bottom-up perspective, from the candidates’ point of view. Vassallo explains: «Who are the types of candidates who can shift votes from one alignment to another or who manage to win over voters not identified with parties? They are mainly in the South and are not figures particularly linked to parties».
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VOTE SHIFTS
The most exemplary case, says Vassallo, is Calabria, «where there is a systematic disparity between regional and political elections. In regional elections, over the last few decades, there has always been an outcome in favor of the center-right, except in one case. But if you look at the results of the European elections, you see that the result is very different».
When there are no preferences, the outcome is different. «It means that there are a certain number of candidates who, in the Regional elections, bet on the center-right candidate and bring a package of personal votes. These types of candidates are closer to the center-right. The Five Star Movement candidates do not shift votes. While in the Democratic Party, the only ones who shift votes are from the reformist area, just look at the European election results of **Stefano Bonaccini**, **Antonio Decaro**, **Pina Picierno**». Or of **Lello Topo**, Vincenzo De Luca’s man, the cacicco par excellence.
Thanks to them, however, the Democratic Party reached 24%. «The problem is that these are cumbersome people for Schlein». Paradoxically, Vassallo continues, the party that could benefit most from the introduction of preferences is one that currently opposes them the most: Forza Italia. «Because it has a position that could attract candidates of that type, capable of shifting personal votes». The problem, Vassallo adds, «is that the current parliamentary group of Fi is an expression of blocked lists». Almost null, however, would be the impact of preferences on Avs, from every point of view: «I don’t think there are candidates in Avs who can shift votes. Theirs is an opinion vote».
