The text of the new electoral law lands in the Senate and immediately two surprises arrive. The first is that Forza Italia did not present the amendment to introduce runoffs, which was expected. Tactical reasons, not a change of mind: the Azzurri could in fact support the amendment presented for the same purpose by Marcello Pera, senator of Fdi. The second surprise is not in the parliamentary acts, but comes from the considerations of members of the premier’s party, where the temptation is growing to call voters to the polls in April, and not only to decide the next parliament, but also the mayors of Rome, Milan, Turin, Naples and other cities. This is based on the belief that those who will vote for Meloni would have a high probability of voting for the center-right candidates in the municipal elections. The “Election day” could coincide with Sunday, April 11.
Read more Policies and voting in the Municipalities Towards the Election day in April | Libero Quotidiano.it
THE “PERA MODEL”
The proposed amendments filed are 697 and as many as 659 come from the opposition. Among the majority’s amendments is the one personally signed by Pera. It provides that the “governability bonus” kicks in at the first round if a coalition exceeds 48% of the votes in both Chambers, or if the first reaches at least 42% and the second stops below 38%. If both exceed 38% and none reaches 48%, a runoff is held, without the possibility of new alliances. And if none of these conditions is met, the seats are distributed proportionally. The maximum number of parliamentarians assignable to the winning coalition is 220 deputies and 113 senators, excluding those elected abroad.
Even though the topic was discussed at the allies’ summit held Monday at the premier’s house, it is the only amendment going in this direction. Forza Italia gave up presenting its own proposal, but not because it is opposed. The first reason, explain Azzurri circles, is that Pera already had his text ready and adding a second would have increased confusion. The second, instead, concerns relations within the majority. The Lega is against the runoff and Forza Italia does not intend to proceed alone for a change that Fdi also cares about a lot, as acknowledged by the Meloni supporters themselves (“If we want a law that guarantees stability, the runoff is indispensable,” says Undersecretary Alberto Balboni). Forza Italia’s attitude therefore remains “absolutely secular”: it is ready to evaluate the former Senate president’s amendment, but not to lead a battle that risks splitting the center-right.
Pera’s proposal, however, was filed not in the Constitutional Affairs Committee, where the work will begin, but directly for the debate in the chamber: a choice that avoids the government having to express an opinion already now. “To date no decision has been made. We will see, we will reflect,” says the committee chairman Andrea De Priamo, also of Fdi.
Even in his party, moreover, some think that the runoff would end up increasing Roberto Vannacci’s support. Instead of immediately putting right-wing voters in front of the need for the “useful vote,” which cannot be for a party outside the coalition, it would allow voting in the first round for the general without fear of giving a gift to the broad field, to converge on Fdi or Lega in the second. The left also opposes runoffs. Although these are part of the historical proposals of the Pd, Elly Schlein argues that they would make the law “even more unconstitutional.”
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THE WOMAN FACTOR
The hope is to provoke another “women’s revolt,” like the one in mid-July, in the Chamber, in a secret ballot vote, that sank the rule that would have reintroduced preferences without taking gender alternation into account.
“The majority wants to cut women out of Parliament,” say now the Five Star Movement (for once agreeing with the others in the broad field), referring to the rule that requires parties to alternate men and women on the list, but does not prevent putting male top candidates in all multi-member constituencies.
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The debate in the chamber is set for September 9 and no one believes that by then the Committee will have had time to examine all the amendments. Among the issues to be resolved is the anti-bush rule, introduced in the Chamber by a Forza Italia amendment, which excludes from the calculation of the national result the votes of parties under 3% that are not the “best loser” of the coalition. Some amendments ask to lower that threshold, Fdi would like to bring it to 2%. It is a topic that mainly concerns the left, where more lists risk falling below that percentage.
