Hard to imagine, for the broad field, a worse way to start the summer break. After the flop in Naples, after Giuseppe Conte’s statements first on the invented “Russian threat,” then on the primaries to decide on arms to Ukraine, here is the “self-produced mess” (copyright a dem) of a resolution on the Safe “dictated” by the M5S, which does not mention the Safe and which split the Pd as well as the center-left (Italia Viva and +Europa voted differently). The novelty is that Elly Schlein seems to have run out of the patience that has characterized her so far. She got angry with her own, she got angry with the reformists (who, however, are just as, if not more, angry with her), she got angry with Conte, worried only about growing the M5S, ignoring the repercussions on the coalition. Her own, then, are even more furious. Even those who had the best relations with the M5S. “She overdid it, enough, we can’t go on like this, if she wants to go back with Salvini she should say so,” are some of the phrases that circulated yesterday in the majority supporting the secretary.
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The game is getting tough. And Conte is playing. Ruthlessly. Aiming for the premiership. The weapon is clear and was explained again yesterday by Virginia Raggi: “Today the dividing line is between pacifists and warmongers, that is between those who want a future of peace and those who want to keep the country blocked, spending billions on arms” and on rearmament and the Safe the Pd “must choose which side to be on.” Warmongers against pacifists, this is the scheme Conte will follow in the primary election campaign to beat Schlein. The problem is that the Pd, so far, has not opposed any reaction. Meanwhile, time passes. The primaries seem inevitable. Around the Pd they are starting to think about when to hold them. And above all how. Because on the rules there will be another battle with the M5S. The roadmap being talked about is that by the end of October the center-left program will be written, then between December and January the primaries will be held.
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The drafting of the program will force addressing the unresolved knot of foreign policy. Then the rules of the primaries will have to be established, another decisive issue. Will they be a single round – as Conte would like – or two rounds, as Schlein would prefer? There is the precedent of the center-left coalition primaries in 2012, when there was a two-round system. On that occasion, a derogation to the Pd statute was also made, allowing Matteo Renzi to run, in addition to the secretary, then Pierluigi Bersani. Then the voting method must be decided: only in person or also online, as is the tradition of the M5S? If consented, the platform must be decided and possible hacking or vote contamination avoided. And then, what will be the electorate?
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Will anyone be able to vote online? Or will there be a pre-registration? But with what timing and where? And until when can one register? Will there be a register of voters? And who will hold it? Already in 2012, on these apparently technical details, a very hard battle was fought between Renzi and Bersani. And they belonged to the same party. Now the contenders are from two different parties. So the conflict, you can bet, will be even greater. Meanwhile, the party that hopes for a “simultaneous withdrawal” of the two contenders, Schlein and Conte, has regained strength, across the board. In favor of a third. Thus avoiding primaries considered by many “devastating” and “destructive.” The M5S leader has made it clear that he does not exclude this hypothesis (he proposed the Regional method: choose the most competitive candidate), although he considers it secondary (he is convinced he can win).
The name Conte could converge on is that of Gaetano Manfredi, obviously provided there is institutional compensation in case of victory: president of the Senate. But Silvia Salis, mayor of Genoa, also warmed up. From September she will start the tour to present her book. So far she has always said she is not interested in the primaries. But, given what is happening, she could change her mind. In any case, she is on the sidelines. Ready to enter.
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Ipsos-Doxa poll, “92% of Pd voters would vote Conte”: Schlein swept away
Between Giuseppe Conte and Elly Schlein, better the leader of the Five Star Movement. That is what Pd voters think…
