How would the next general elections end if voting were done with the Stabilicum, the new electoral system proposed by Brothers of Italy? Try to answer with Youtrend, with a simulation based on the current Supermedia of polls.
The new electoral law would benefit the center-right more, especially if National Future, the party founded by Roberto Vannacci, joined the coalition. Without the futurists, instead, the system would favor the broader progressive coalition including Italia Viva and More Europe. A confirmation of the ultimate purpose of the reform proposed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni: to favor coalitions to make the country more governable, regardless of colors.
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Youtrend compared the current electoral system, the so-called Rosatellum, with the currently known version of the Stabilicum under discussion in the Chamber. Four scenarios of possible alliances and alignments are thus identified, excluding variables not currently assessable such as “strategic voting”.
According to the first hypothesized scenario, the center-right (including FnV) would be the leading coalition with 48.5%, gaining – thanks to the majority bonus of the “Stabilicum” – 222 seats in the Chamber and 113 in the Senate. That is 18 more seats in the Chamber and 15 more in Palazzo Madama, which would be what the center-right would have with the Rosatellum. The broad field, instead, would stop at 44.7% with 160 seats in the Chamber with the Stabilicum (instead of 182 with the Rosatellum) and 77 in the Senate (instead of 93 with the Rosatellum).
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In the second scenario (FnV alone and the two centrist parties in the broad field), the progressives would total 44.7% with 222 seats in Montecitorio (compared to 201 under the current law) and 112 in the Senate (compared to 105) while the center-right in its current form would be at 42.3% with 141 seats in the Chamber (it would be 169 with the Rosatellum) and 68 in the Senate (now 79).
The other two scenarios consider the hypothesis of FnV in the center-right or alone but with Iv and +Europe in a centrist alignment and in both cases would see the center-right leading at 48.5% including Vannacci or at 42.3 without his party but one point behind the Pd-M5s and Avs front.
