Roberto Vannacci yes, Roberto Vannacci no. According to what Giorgia Meloni has publicly said, who is the one who will have the final say, in next year’s general elections the center-right coalition will present itself without the general, deemed not recruitable. A clear and reiterated choice, but costly. The latest Euromedia Research poll for Porta a Porta actually gives the current majority – without Futuro Nazionale, estimated at 7.4% losing against the broad field: 41.7% for the government forces against 43.2% for the left. Although in politics the result of a coalition never corresponds to the algebraic sum of the values tested in the polls of the political forces that compose it, it is easy to predict that, in case of an agreement between the premier and the former military man, the situation would be reversed.
«It is more important to win to govern rather than to win not to govern», and then «Vannacci’s party is made up of parliamentarians elected with us and who today vote with the opposition», reiterated the Fdi leader, specifying two things. The first, addressed to the center-right people, is that she does not trust the general; those who have betrayed once can do it again. The second, a message to those tempted to vote left, that the various broad progressive fields have always imploded. «I am not looking for seats, I am interested in not betraying the expectations of the voters», replies the General. Blank shots: is it an offer or a criticism? Everything clear and unchangeable, then?
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THE STRATEGIES
Yes, of course, maybe though… If you ask the close circle of the Prime Minister, it is a continuous explanation that «Giorgia does not trust, Giorgia does not want to contradict her political path, Giorgia is not attached to the power of the moment, Giorgia is young and can wait another round, Giorgia has one word and cannot backtrack on Ukraine». In short, after having worked so hard to establish herself, in Italy and in the world, as a conservative leader, why would she flirt with an extremist force?
All the more so, it would be naive to think of reaching the Quirinale marching alongside those considered heirs of the Decima Mas. «I tend to exclude any agreement», confides a loyalist, emphasizing that «how could, moreover, an agreement be accepted by Lega and Forza Italia, against whom Vannacci, not knowing how to do politics, shoots wildly?». No doubt then, even if the chorus of insiders is unanimous, «in any case, in the end, she will decide»; which means that, if she changes her mind, no one would reproach her.
Complicating the picture, rather than simplifying it, as some experts on the numbers of the majority parties point out, is the electoral law. Youtrend has done the damn calculations and it turns out that, thanks to the majority bonus introduced for the coalition that wins by surpassing 42%, Vannacci in the alliance would be a multiplier of seats for everyone. Based on the latest polls, in the Chamber without the general Fdi would have 91 deputies, Forza Italia 26 and the Lega 19; with him, instead, there would be 125 for the Meloni supporters, 35 for the azzurri and 26 for the Salvini supporters. As for Palazzo Madama, peace with the general for the forces of the current majority means 48 more senators to share. Not small change. And so no one denies that in all three parties of the alliance there are small groups, local representatives, deputies who define themselves totally loyal to their leaders, but who unfortunately are forced to admire him from the third row, who are sowing the bad seed of yielding to the man in stars. «Selfishness of small characters. Anxieties of those who know they are expendable. Traitors».
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Thus this transversal party is defined, in which no one dares to emerge, because only the word “Vannacci” in the upper echelons of the majority is a hot potato that is suicidal to have in your mouth. It is a party that has not yet become a driving force, also because, the closer the elections get, the more it is inadvisable for a nominee of one leader to confide in a nominee of another leader, even if an ally; it would be even more risky to confide in an elected member of the same list.
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THE RUMORS
But in Parliament people talk, especially since not much else can be done. So more than one azzurro reasons on the fact that «Forza Italia is traditionally a government party, whoever you have beside you». Some Lega members note that «Vannacci basically just copied us, used our slogans; Afd was also our ally before Jordan Bardellà kicked it out of the Patriots for Europe considering it a homophobic party; the French, after all…».
Then there are the not too Meloni brothers, those who did not share with the leader the desert crossing that started in December 2012, or who in any case do not intend to retrace it, because in the meantime they have lost contact with the boss. «Why throw everything away? Giorgia also says that in five years it is not possible to leave a definitive mark». There are even those who cling to Ignazio La Russa’s last statement: «The left would have kissed Vannacci on the mouth just to win».
Does it mean that deep down, maybe it is possible? In short, the line is clear but the topic is good for behind-the-scenes and will remain so for a long time. Even if the fact that the super growth of Futuro Nazionale has stopped in the latest Youtrend supermedia survey, which recognizes only a 0.1% advance, although at 7.7%, has put many in a good mood. In the end Giorgia will decide, confirms a loyalist: «But you will see, when the broad field identifies its leader, the potential left candidate for Palazzo Chigi will take shape and the polls will no longer be between Giorgia and all those against her, the polls will tell us that the center-right will not need the general to win».
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