The Furious Cricket is a mine in the Broad Field. If the problems to solve were not enough, with the leadership quarrel between Elly Schlein and Giuseppe Conte and the primary puzzle, the center-left is also facing the headache of the former guarantor – and founder – of the M5S. And what a headache: Grillo would be ready to launch a new political entity ahead of next year’s elections. At least, this is what the new Whatsapp status of the Elevated suggests, who posted an update mocking his former creation with an image: the M5S symbol transformed into a “Zero Stars Movement.” A sharp jab at his successor, with whom he is also engaged in a legal battle over the use of the five-star logo. The sortie has revived rumors about a possible second run by Grillo. With effects far from negligible for the Broad Field, since the possible new formation of the comedian would position itself to the left of the current coalition formed by Pd, M5S, Avs, and a hypothetical fourth centrist-inspired leg.
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“It would be a mirror operation to the one Roberto Vannacci is carrying out in the center-right,” reasons Lorenzo Pregliasco, founder of YouTrend. With one difference: “It is not certain that it will have the same success.” At least considering the numbers currently credited to Futuro Nazionale. But this does not mean that the Broad Field is not at risk, quite the opposite. “It is not necessary for the numbers to be the same,” observes Pregliasco. Implied: to provoke political effects for the 2027 electoral outcome. Looking at the current balance of power between coalitions, in fact, “two or three points less for the center-left would be enough to allow Giorgia Meloni to win without allying with Vannacci.”
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THE ELECTORAL MARKET
And here we come to the heart of the matter: is there, in the current political-electoral market, space for a new force to the left of the Broad Field? Pregliasco’s answer is affirmative, and the thought goes to Terra, pace e dignità, the formation of Michele Santoro that ran in the 2024 European elections with an alternative platform to the traditional center-left parties. It did not surpass the 4% threshold but still garnered 2.2%. Which would be more than enough to “bother” Pd, M5S, and Avs. “There is a political space of a few percentage points,” says Pregliasco. Certainly, Grillo is no longer the one of the massive crowds of the “vaffa day,” but who can exclude that the “call of the wild” will not be answered by the most orthodox area of the Movement? And there is another precedent to consider, for the YouTrend head: “The numbers reached by Unione popolare, Luigi de Magistris’s formation, in 2022, 1.4%, also show that there is a left-wing area outside the coalition.”
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For Antonio Noto, founder of Noto Sondaggi, the effect of a new Grillo-branded movement could be even heavier for the center-left: “It could be worth at least 3%, maybe a bit more.” A number the analyst arrives at by observing two portions of the electoral market. “Within M5S there is an area that, although loyal to Conte, has not severed the sentimental bond with Grillo.” Noto recalls, for example, the positions of the former mayors of Turin and Rome, Chiara Appendino and Virginia Raggi, who have often expressed doubts about the alliance with Pd and relations with Matteo Renzi. This area corresponds, he calculates, “to about a third of the M5S electorate.” And there Beppe could break through. Above all, however, there is that block of five-star voters who, after the 2018 binge – 32.6% in the general elections – once Grillo stepped off the stage, took refuge in abstention: “Between the almost 33% eight years ago and the current 12%, there are about twenty points. Some of these former supporters could decide to return by supporting the founder. If then Grillo were to also reclaim the symbol, the matter would become even more interesting.”
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