“Effetto-Vannacci”, the survey: fears in the Repubblica newsroom | Libero Quotidiano.it

Repubblica, with a hint of barely concealed terror, calls it the “Vannacci effect“. And even if, as it seems, the hypothesis of an electoral law with a second round and runoff between coalitions should fail, pollsters’ analyses reveal much of what could happen at the time of the next general elections.

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If we really go to the polls with a runoff, explains a Youtrend poll conducted between September 1 and 2 on 1,200 respondents, the Broad Field would win in the first round reaching 44.4%, ahead by over 6 points the center-right (at 38.1%). In case of runoff, however, the center-left would lose 2.2 percentage points. A turnaround resulting from the vote of Futuro Nazionale voters, the party of Roberto Vannacci which at least for now is not considered an integral part of the center-right.

“The difficulty for the center-right in the first round perhaps explains the government’s need to change the electoral law approved by the Chamber,” explains to Repubblica Giovanni Diamanti, president of Youtrend. At the moment, the electoral law provides a majority bonus to the coalition that exceeds 42 percent.

In the first round, Vannacci is given at 8.2%. A surprising result, but useless if not in coalition. Or without the runoff, precisely. Because those votes would go to the center-right or end up among abstainers in the second round. Certainly not to the center-left. “Vannacci shows no sign of stopping his rise and in the first round there is an evident transfer from the center-right towards Futuro Nazionale which is contesting significant electoral segments with the center-right,” emphasizes Diamanti. In the second round, however, “there is a mobilization of Vannacci voters towards the center-right and this is the main key to the turnaround we see between the first and second rounds”.

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A notable alarm bell for the Broad Field, because in case of a second round the uncertainty of the voters of the Five Star Movement, Italia Viva and +Europa would weigh, less convinced to return to the polls. In favor of the center-right, then, would play the ability to attract in a runoff the votes of Azione and the Liberal Democratic Party. Together, this is a valuable 5.4 percent. This is because the Broad Field “has difficulty expanding in the second round,” concludes Diamanti. And because in the end the pool of potential voters ends with the first round.

Vannacci, in any case, is preparing to reap. “For months Fn had to be irrelevant. As soon as the polls put it ahead of Lega and FI, new electoral formulas appeared. It’s the move of fear,” he attacks in an interview with Il Foglio. Asked what indications he would give in case of a runoff in the general elections, the former general replies: “Anyone who imagines being able to exclude Fn in the first round and then automatically cash in its votes in the second makes a serious mistake. Our voters are not a postal package to be transferred from one coalition to another and are not property of mine nor, much less, of the parties that today want to neutralize their consensus. The right is certainly our natural placement, but ‘natural’ does not mean automatic, subordinate or unconditional”. Then, adds the leader of FnV, “in the event of a runoff we will evaluate the approved law, the coalitions in the field and above all the programmatic commitments. If there is a serious convergence, Fn will do its part. I do not announce abstention today and do not use it as a threat, but no one can consider our voting indication already acquired. Those who want our votes will have to earn them”.

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