Electoral law, the shock study: here’s why the M5s risks disaster in the South | Libero Quotidiano.it

“With preferences, the electoral competitiveness factor of political forces changes, especially in the South. And it benefits the center-right.” The introduction of preferences in the next electoral law could lead to a true Copernican revolution. And it could be another blow for the broad field. As the Corriere della Sera points out, the element that has so far been “underestimated” concerns the absence of single-member constituencies and blocked lists. “Preferences will set in motion the electoral machines that remained still with other voting systems,” reads a study elaborated by an expert on the subject from the Democratic Party.

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The main focus is on the South, “the sum of those consensus networks can make the difference in the final result.” And this is precisely why the study focuses on the South: “the preference attribution index” by voters exceeds 70%. In the North, voters make (much) less use of it. But it doesn’t end there. Preferences induce citizens of the South to move “with greater ease” from one party to another, but also from one coalition to another. For its part, the Democratic Party can count on very powerful machines in Campania and Puglia. The Five Star Movement, on the other hand, would face a “structural” problem. Especially when compared to the consensus obtained in the 2022 elections, when it consecrated itself by far the first party in the South. And the scenario that sees its allies grabbing votes leaving the grillini “would not be realistic.”

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The aforementioned document reports eloquent data. The example of Bari is given: the difference between the data from the last national elections (27.9%) and that from the last regional elections (8.9%) is indicative. And if the Stabilicum was created to assign the government to the coalition that gets one more vote than the other, one understands the scope of the change that the new electoral law will produce.

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