Party ratings in the orientations of Italians would not change much if they were to vote now, but interesting signals are emerging for the coalitions. In particular, it is the center-right that could be most affected by the adhesion of Futuro Nazionale, even winning the elections overall, but losing votes. This is what emerges from the Ipsos Doxa poll by Nando Pagnoncelli conducted for Corriere della sera. In detail, in the last month Fratelli d’Italia remains first with 26.5% of the consensus but showing a slight and further contraction (now 0.5%, after the 0.6% a month ago). The decline of the Lega continues, losing 0.5% and settling at 5.1%, surpassed by Forza Italia which maintains 8.3 and, on the other hand, by the party of its former deputy secretary, Futuro Nazionale by Roberto Vannacci, which now distances the Carroccio by 2 percentage points and is estimated at 7.1% (+1.1% compared to the previous month).
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Noi moderati by Maurizio Lupi is at 0.9 compared to 0.8. In the center-left, the situation is stable: the Pd does not move from 20.1% (the same figure for two months, while the last peak, of 22.3%, dates back to the end of April), the M5s is at 14.5% (a month ago it was at 14.3) and Avs at 6.3% (compared to 6.2 in June). Both Azione at 3.1% and Italia viva at 2.3% are slightly up, while +Europa records a decrease of 0.5%, stopping at 1.4%. With a proportional electoral scenario, the center-right would reach 47.9% by summing the data of the four parties and opening the door to the futurists, while without the former general it would total 40.8%. The progressive front (Pd, M5s, Avs, Iv and Più Europa, thus excluding Azione) would reach 44.6%, thus beating the opponents but only if Vannacci ran alone, and not the other way around. The picture changes when interviewing voters in the poll on currently existing ‘teams’ and asking them to confirm the vote expressed in the proportional system.
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A center-right expanded to include FnV would lose more than two points, going from 47.9% in the proportional system to 45.4% in the coalition scenario. The interpretation given in the poll is that in that case, both FI voters and Vannacci’s supporters have a negative impact. On the other hand, the progressive coalition could instead rise to 45%, probably strengthened by the anti-Vannacci push.
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